This winter smells like 2001-2002!

Late this week, the strong Polar Vortex will be located over northern Hudson Bay. The fast and flat jet stream will be displaced far enough south to allow yet glancing blow of cold air into the North County:

When I was expecting a pattern change that would allow for a colder and snowier second half to January (relative to the first half of January), I did NOT foresee this:

The Polar Vortex will retreat toward the Arctic Ocean by next week. This will make make it immensely cold over Alaska and northwestern Canada. And the fast flowing jet stream will keep the continental United States awash in a mild Pacific-origin air mass. The vortex-ridge-vortex pattern is a stable configuration and will not be dislodged anytime soon. Some of the ensembles even shows the vortex backing up all the way to Alaska. If that happens, it's "Game Over" for anything resembling a traditional North Country winter in February or even March because that's where the Polar Vortex was sitting in late November. And we saw what happened with that!!

If you been following me, then you know I'm not a "Johnny Come Lately" in sounding the alarm for an overall lack of snow and cold this winter. I jumped on the early winter trend over a month ago.

One of the analogue winters I cited was 2001-2002. I remember eagerly anticipating what would happen if all of that bitter cold air in Alaska and northern Canada would make it down here and wreak its merry havoc. Of course, it never really did and I had no idea why. Now, I'm a little older and wiser. . . .

Here's an example from this week:

Aside from a brief shot of bitter cold air into the Dakotas and Minnesota on Thursday, there will be little penetration by the Canadian ice-box. By Friday, the bitter cold air will have already retreated into Canada and we only get a weakened, glancing blow.

In December or even a couple of weeks ago, you could speculate about a POSSIBLE reversal in the pattern for the second half of winter (ex. 2006-2007). But with the pattern expected to take hold for the final days of January, I think a wholesale reversal like 2006-2007 is highly unlikely.

We'll do some comparative anatomy:

In 2002, there was a powerful vortex over northern Hudson Bay with a fast and flat jet stream. (Look familiar? Go back to the top of this article.)

In 2007, December and the first half of January was amazingly warm and snowless, but things were starting to change. A weaker jet stream started to buckle and allow cold air to regularly invade the northeastern United States. Although the snow drought continued until mid-February, a real weather change was inevitable.

The lack of consistent cold in the United States this winter is not due to La Nina, global warming, or the Boogy Man. When it was cold here last winter in December, January into early February, the Arctic Region was warmer than normal. Why? Just think of the Arctic as your freezer. When you keep the door shut, the freezer sits at -20*F and the outside sits at room temperature (about 68*F). When you open the door, the temperature inside the freezer rises and the air by the open freezer door gets colder. This winter, the Arctic door has been mostly shut, allowing immensely cold air to build up in Alaska and northern Canada without much release into the United States.

Now if you are still into speculation, the winter of 2001-2002 was followed up by the winter of 2002-2003. That was one whale of a winter for those of us who like cold and snow. So there is a little hope for next winter already.

Darrin