Nothing new under the sun.....

Yes, I know that a marginal mixed precipitation event is underway this evening. But by the end of January, I'm not really motivated to diagram a minor event of this type that we have seen all winter. So I'm diving into another adventure in longer range forecasting.

This first picture is really stunning, a direct result of the killer NAO+/AO+ pattern that we've had all autumn and winter:

Take an extra moment to look at that. There isn't a 2 foot snow pack ANYWHERE in the North Country, not even in the High Peaks or the traditional lake effect snow belt in the western 'Dacks or Tug Hill.

If you are looking for that pot of snow at the end of the rainbow, you will not find it here:

By almost mid-February, this pattern pits the vast majority of the truly cold air on the west side of the Arctic (left of the red line). That giant eastern Siberian Vortex will not be in any hurry to move or break down. There is nothing to dislodge it.

It's little wonder that NOAA's 8-14 day outlook shows a high probability for above normal temperatures for much of the continental United States:

In a low snowfall winter, sometimes we get a significant or major late winter/early spring snowstorm despite the overall pattern. But at this point, I think it's safe to say that we are NOT going to re-live 2006-2007. This one smells like 2001-2002.

Darrin