Significant lake effect snow event for Northern Herkimer & Hamilton Counties

After the initial snow-squall lines blows by this evening, the NAM has latched onto a band of heavy lake effect snow overnight into early Sunday:

Aside from the usual lake effect maximum in the Tug Hill, there is a stripe of heavy precipitation along an axis from Stillwater Reservoir to Long Lake and onto the High Peaks. The 0.75" inches of liquid equivalent around Stillwater Reservoir could easily produce snowfall over a foot in a lake effect event.

The NAM forecast sounding for overnight shows why:

This appears to be a tailor-made lake effect snow event for the northern third of Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. I'm puzzled as to why there are not yet any Lake Effect Snow Advisories/Warnings for the Adirondacks with this set-up.

Darrin

Taste of winter over the weekend. . . .

The brief pattern shift I alluded to for the end of January will come to fruition and bring a taste of winter this weekend into the first half of next week.

The first mini installment of winter will happen Saturday evening as a strong cold front blows through the Adirondacks. Here is a panel depicting the frontal passage around 7PM Saturday (00Z Sunday):

An impressive line of snow-squalls should develop in response to the front:

This almost looks like a summertime thunderstorm line! These squalls could produce multiple inches of snowfall in less than an hour over the western and central Adirondacks Saturday evening with strong gusty winds and whiteouts. This squall line will lose its punch over the southeastern Adirondacks, but a quick snow-squall with falling temperatures could create some "surprise" black ice problems there. Lake effect snows developing after frontal passage will add some more frosting to the cake overnight.

On top of that, there could be another pulse of snow Sunday evening and another one by Tuesday. But after that, I'll show another familiar sight this winter, the warmup! This is yet another storm tracking to our west and north, pulling in another slug of warmer air and rain.

If you enjoy outdoor winter sports, you'll have a small window for some fun.

Darrin

Nothing new under the sun.....

Yes, I know that a marginal mixed precipitation event is underway this evening. But by the end of January, I'm not really motivated to diagram a minor event of this type that we have seen all winter. So I'm diving into another adventure in longer range forecasting.

This first picture is really stunning, a direct result of the killer NAO+/AO+ pattern that we've had all autumn and winter:

Take an extra moment to look at that. There isn't a 2 foot snow pack ANYWHERE in the North Country, not even in the High Peaks or the traditional lake effect snow belt in the western 'Dacks or Tug Hill.

If you are looking for that pot of snow at the end of the rainbow, you will not find it here:

By almost mid-February, this pattern pits the vast majority of the truly cold air on the west side of the Arctic (left of the red line). That giant eastern Siberian Vortex will not be in any hurry to move or break down. There is nothing to dislodge it.

It's little wonder that NOAA's 8-14 day outlook shows a high probability for above normal temperatures for much of the continental United States:

In a low snowfall winter, sometimes we get a significant or major late winter/early spring snowstorm despite the overall pattern. But at this point, I think it's safe to say that we are NOT going to re-live 2006-2007. This one smells like 2001-2002.

Darrin

Big changes by early February? Don't bet on it.......

The ensembles are showing the polar vortex over Baffin Island and absolutely no blocking high over Greenland around February 7th. In other words, the same NAO+/AO+ pattern we've seen all winter.

At least we get to save on heating costs this winter....

Darrin

From Death Pattern to Pulse of Life for Winter by January 31st?

The ensembles show a stunning shift in the orientation of the Polar Vortex from Alaska to Hudson Bay during the last days of January:

The shift is so dramatic and sudden that it's almost beyond belief. But with the Arctic Oscillation possibly entering a prolonged negative phase for the first time this winter and snow cover FINALLY developing over eastern and central Europe, there might be something to this:

Lest you think this might be the major pattern shift that we saw in 2006-2007, there is still NO evidence of a Greenland Blocking High to keep the Polar Vortex lobe in Hudson's Bay. It is very possible (or likely) that the Polar Vortex lobe could retreat northward back up to Baffin Island, about where it has been most of the winter.

At least winter still has a pulse......

Darrin

Windy last night!!

NEW YORK

...CLINTON COUNTY...      MPH
   ELLENBURG               55   201 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   PERU                    49   211 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   SCHUYLER FALLS          49   301 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   DANNEMORA               45   156 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   1 NW ELLENBURG DEPOT    44  1230 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   ELLENBURG DEPOT         39   356 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   PLATTSBURGH INTL AIR    37   808 AM  1/18  ASOS                    
   BEEKMANTOWN             36   157 AM  1/18  MESONET                 

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   1 NE MOUNT VAN HOEVE    44   201 AM  1/18  RAWS                    
   MOIRA                   35  1157 PM  1/17  MESONET                 

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   2 ENE LAKE CLEAR        55  1220 AM  1/18  ASOS                    

...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
   2 ENE POTSDAM           66  1118 PM  1/17  AWOS                    
   HANNAWA FALLS           65  1200 AM  1/18  LOCAL POLICE            
   2 ENE MASSENA           63  1202 AM  1/18  ASOS                    
   STAR LAKE               52  1248 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   2 S OGDENSBURG          52  1104 PM  1/17  AWOS                    
   CANTON                  44  1256 AM  1/18  MESONET                 
   POTSDAM                 44  1157 PM  1/17  MESONET                 
   BRASHER FALLS           43  1101 PM  1/17  MESONET                 
   HAMMOND                 35  1056 PM  1/17  MESONET                 
   6 NE POTSDAM            35  1056 PM  1/17  MESONET 

...WARREN COUNTY...

2 NE GLENS FALLS (          203 AM JAN 18     49 MPH
2 NE CORINTH                319 AM JAN 18     39 MPH
3 SSW LAKE GEORGE VILLAG    403 AM JAN 18     28 MPH

...HAMILTON COUNTY...
INDIAN LAKE (1850 FT) (     153 AM JAN 18     50 MPH
2 ESE EAGLE BAY (1715 FT)   132 AM JAN 18     35 MPH
1 WNW LONG LAKE (1650 FT)   120 AM JAN 18     24 MPH
7 S SPECULATOR (1738 FT)   1233 AM JAN 18     22 MPH

Just a bit nippy this morning. . . .

That's pretty darned cold! The 0*F and 3*F in Essex County are located on mountains. On a clear, calm night, cold air sinks down into the valley off the mountains, creating a strong inversion (a fancy way of saying the temperature increases with elevation). Typically, the temperature will decline with elevation.

Darrin